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A Hawkish Goodbye to 2022
In a week that saw the broader market's 2023 pivot hope dashed, investors are examining the overnight movement with great detail to...

Stephen Innes
Dec 16, 20222 min read
22 views
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Markets are back running with the Stagflation baton.
MARKETS The shift in the market's focus from its infatuation with inflation and the Fed to the economic growth momentum was on full...

Stephen Innes
Dec 16, 20222 min read
11 views
0 comments


Hawks and ( turtle ) Doves + Beijing Walloped With Spreading Covid Outbreak
As expected, the Fed downshifted to a 50bp rate hike at the December meeting but continued to signal that "ongoing" increases were...

Stephen Innes
Dec 15, 20222 min read
12 views
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Chair Powell banged the higher terminal rate gong.
MARKETS US stocks snapped to a two-day winning streak after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his hawkish stance. Indeed...

Stephen Innes
Dec 15, 20222 min read
8 views
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What Now For the Dollar
Understanding why the dollar has weakened so sharply in recent months is paramount: it is all about its safe-haven risk premium, China's...

Stephen Innes
Dec 14, 20222 min read
10 views
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Still 7%
MARKETS The initial surge in the S&P 500 on the back of a very encouraging CPI inflation report has quickly faded ahead of today's...

Stephen Innes
Dec 14, 20221 min read
8 views
0 comments


Shaping up to be a volatile week
MARKETS If Monday's cross-asset price action were any indication, it is shaping up to be a volatile week. For the first time this year,...

Stephen Innes
Dec 13, 20222 min read
21 views
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Risk Management vs Risk Taking Mode Around This Week's High Vol Events?
MARKETS According to closely watched data on Friday, producer prices in the US rose more than expected last month. And as investors...

Stephen Innes
Dec 11, 20223 min read
62 views
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Will The Fed Be Naughty or Nice
Financial conditions have eased considerably since the FOMC signalled a slower pace of rate hikes. There are good reasons for this: an...

Stephen Innes
Dec 10, 20222 min read
15 views
0 comments


Signs that the labour market is cooling mean a soft landing may still be achievable
MARKETS US equities were stronger Thursday, with S&P up 0.5% heading into the close, the first up day after five consecutive declines....

Stephen Innes
Dec 9, 20222 min read
11 views
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A more severe recession than previously anticipated.?
US equities were little changed Wednesday, with S&P down 0.3% heading into the close. But there was a more significant move in rates:...

Stephen Innes
Dec 8, 20221 min read
9 views
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A nasty case of macro discomforts has returned for the holiday season.
MARKETS US stocks slid, and the price of Brent crude touched its lowest since January after robust economic data revived concerns that...

Stephen Innes
Dec 7, 20222 min read
7 views
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Rumours of the US economic demise were greatly exaggerated.
MARKETS US stocks fell, and bond yields surged after a robust ISM services print, suggesting the most vital part of the US economy and...

Stephen Innes
Dec 6, 20222 min read
11 views
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Robust Jobs Data vs China Reopening
MARKETS Stocks opened to a cautious note in Asia on Monday as investors chew over the impact of the robust U.S. jobs report against the...

Stephen Innes
Dec 5, 20223 min read
11 views
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Noisy Oil Markets
With Poland finally, on board, the EU agreed to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 per barrel—higher than the levels at which...

Stephen Innes
Dec 4, 20222 min read
25 views
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Easing pains for the dollar
US financial conditions have eased incredibly in recent weeks, unwinding essentially all of the FCI tightening since the middle of the...

Stephen Innes
Dec 3, 20221 min read
14 views
0 comments


As the dust settles on a cheeky NFP surprise
After spending much of the week firmly locked in rally mode in the wake of Chair Powell's latest introspections, markets received a bit...

Stephen Innes
Dec 3, 20222 min read
28 views
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Friday Forex Follies
The negative run of US economic data triggered more declines in yields overnight. And given that US bond yields have not been this low...

Stephen Innes
Dec 2, 20221 min read
9 views
0 comments


Overdue for a downside NFP surprise?
MARKETS US equities were flat Thursday, and S&P was unchanged heading into the close. US10yr yields down 7bps to 3.53%, 2yrs down 5bps to...

Stephen Innes
Dec 2, 20222 min read
5 views
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Asia Wrap: Optimism is highly contagious
The general upbeat feeling since last month's soft CPI print has carried into December after stocks surged thanks to a speech from Fed...

Stephen Innes
Dec 1, 20221 min read
6 views
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